Deadliest Catch?

Are you trying to decide whether or not to select a Wide Receiver with your 1st or 2nd choice in your fantasy draft this season? This would be the year to do it. Andre Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald are the only two that I would draft as an end-of-the-round 1st rounder, but players like Steve Smith, Roddy White, Randy Moss, Reggie Wayne and Megatron can all be counted on for solid, if not elite, seasons in 2009. In a PPR league, I’m really loving Andre Johnson in Houston, but if you want to pass a round or two, you should still be able to get Wes Welker of New England, and a little bit later, TJ Houshmandzadeh of Seattle. If you are looking for TD’s, ignore the Madden Curse and select Larry Johnson. Steve Smith loves to score as well, but he has Amazing days, and not so Amazing days. Be prepared. Wide Receiver is a deep position this season, so I would recommend to draft one of the few studs, draft a mid-range guy, then draft a bunch of up-side possible 1,000 yard guys for your #3 WR. If you are playing head-to-head, maybe you can benefit from an LJ and Megatron WR corp, but don’t go super-strong WR corp with two “Running Back by Committee” guys, because you will surely get burned.

Running on Empty or Running Wild?

Considering that I have Adrian Peterson as my 2009 season keeper player, I’m kind of happy. Everyone with any sense had AP at #1 in their Running Back rankings. After that, no one seems to know. MJD? The Burner? Forte? I’ll give you a quick point or two about 10 different Running Backs that you may be thinking about drafting in your league.

• Maurice Jones-Drew: He has far less miles on him that other RB’s his age, and he’s a monster in Points per Reception leagues. Now that he is starting, expect a top 5 RB performance this season.
• Matt Forte: I like him this season. Take it from me, someone who passed over AP in last season’s draft for LT, because I was afraid of the “Sophomore Jinx”. Cutler will have two safety valves, and Forte will be one of them.
• Michael Turner: He touched the ball way too many times last season, but much like MJD, he doesn’t have the mileage that other backs his age would have by now. I can see him going anywhere from 4th overall RB to 6th overall RB depending on people’s tastes.
• Clinton Portis: I’ve always been a fan, and if he is sitting there for me to choose in round 2 or 3 I will gladly do so, but he is an injury risk. He had touches like MJD and Turner, but he has been getting those touches for years.
• Stephen Jackson: Injury risk with a HUGE upside. On his best days, he’ll give you 175 yards rushing, 100 yards receiving and 3 touchdowns. On his worst, you won’t know he isn’t playing until the first set of offensive downs. Just understand that you will miss him for a few games and you’ll be OK.
• Brian Westbrook: He’s starting to scare me. Non-stop injuries. Though he is a warrior, they now have a Westbrook backup plan in Philly, and I expect his numbers to fall because of that.
• LaDainian Tomlinson: Though he always spends at least some time on my roster each season, it is unclear whether he helps or hurts me. In one season, I won a league because I drafted him, and in another I won the league because I traded him away (for nothing). He has so much to prove, but he will only prove it if the San Diego defense holds up. Don’t put yourself in a situation where you fantasy season hinges on LT holding you up. He won’t. Enjoy his one 200 yard 4 td game in the season, and deal with the other 50 yd days, and the missed second halves, that you will have to deal with.
• Adrian Peterson: He had better be worth the #1 overall pick, or this season is gonna sour fast for me.
• Reggie Bush: Unless he is a 3rd RB in a PPR league, don’t bother.
• Thomas Jones: He will NOT repeat his numbers from last season. Washington and Greene will definitely cut into his touches. I am a Jets fan, so believe the words that are being typed from this keyboard. Still use him as a #2 for at least the first half of the season. For the second half, remember the name Shonn Greene.

Quarterbacks to Worry About

I’m posting here today to crap on a few Quarterbacks that some of you Fantasy Football n00bs think can save your seasons, or make your fellow GM’s think that you are the second coming of Fantasy Football Christ. I’m not saying that they won’t have a productive season, but you sure as hell better not be counting on them to do so.

• Matt Cassel – I can see why you want to draft him (3,693 yards passing, 270 rushing and 23 touchdowns). You think that he is moving to a bad team where he will always have to pass. The problem is, he is moving behind a very poor offensive line (New England was one of the best). He’s going from Moss and Welker to Bowe and Insert-WR-Here. It’s his second full season, and he is starting a brand new offensive scheme. He does have Head Coach Todd Haley, who likes to throw, but he also loves to be highly confrontational with his players. Let’s see how that works out.
• Tony Romo – You think he is only going to get better without that ball-hog Owens. Here is the problem: What has Roy Williams shown you lately? Wasn’t he supposed to pull the double teams off of Owens? Are you really afraid of Patrick Crayton and Roy Williams? Witten will get his touches, but another problem I see is the group of studs at RB that this team has. Expect Dallas to run much more this season with a healthy Marion the Barbarian and Feliz Jones. Rashard Choice is no slouch either.
• Jay Cutler – I drafted him last year as my second QB (my league starts 2), and he was a very valuable cog in an otherwise injury-riddled team. Late in the season I turned him into this season’s keeper, Adrian Peterson. Will I draft Cutler early this season? No. Why? He is throwing to a kick returner, some rookies, a very good tight end, and a 2nd year running back. I foresee a lot of “safe” passes from Cutler, but other than the occasional deep pass to Devin Hester, I can see a significant drop-off in passing yards for the QB from Vanderbilt. He doesn’t have Eddie Royal or Brandon Marshall, and he has to prove if he is the gritty competitor that barked at Philip Rivers and played through Diabetes, or if he is the whiner that didn’t want to play in Denver after Shanahan left.

NERD talks Fantasy Football

Hello Everybody. With July and August rapidly approaching, I’m sure that a whole lot of you are beginning your preparations for your 2009 Fantasy Football seasons. Even if you’re not, I sure-as-hell am. My name is Sean O’Neill, and it is my job to provide our visitors with a helping hand throughout the Fantasy Football season. If you want to get a second eye on that Terrell Owens and Tom Brady for Reggie Wayne and Peyton Manning trade, shoot me a message and I will get back to you with an answer. If your question is intriguing enough, I’ll answer it as part of my next post. If you don’t like my answers, you are probably wrong, but I would love to hear from you anyway.

Let me fill you in on my 2009 Fantasy Football situation, as I am sure you are all thinking to yourselves, “Who is this guy, and why do I want my Fantasy Football information from him?” I’m in an 8 team big $$$ ROTO keeper league with PPR and 3 defensive categories. I’m carrying Adrian Peterson into this season as my keeper, so things are looking good. I am in other leagues, which I have won championships in as recently as last season, but the ROTO league is where my bread is buttered, so I will refer heavily to the goings-on in this league.

If you have questions coming from the point of view of a commissioner, a hard-core player, or just your average Fantasy Football n00b, I’d be glad to answer ‘em. I’ll sit here with my Refreshing NERD Energy Beverage and answer your questions, and hopefully I’ll be right most of the time. If not, then you can call me on it. I’ll basically run the blog from the kinds of questions the visitors are asking, so comments and emails are greatly appreciated.

Thanks for reading my short blog post, and I hope that you continue reading. Drink NERD Energy Beverage and Read my column. This will get you more focused to pick my answers apart and make the blog a better place.